A recent opinion poll by Mizani Africa indicates what to expect in the Mbeere North by-election slated for later this month.
In a social media post on Wednesday, the 19th, Mizani Africa stated that the race for the Mbeere North MP by-election is too close to call, as the poll shows the top candidates, Leonard Wa Muthende and Newton Karish, are nearly tied.
According to the poll, Leonard Wa Muthende of UDA is leading with 44.6%, followed closely by Newton Karish of the Democratic Party with 42.4%.
“Fresh preference numbers from Mbeere North signal an incredibly tight by-election battle, with Leonard Wa Muthende at 44.6% and Newton Karish at 42.4%. These figures sit well within the survey’s ±3% margin of error, confirming beyond doubt that the race is too close to call.” a post by Mizani Africa post reads.
Mizani Africa further added that the close margin between the UDA and DP candidates is so narrow that neither side holds a clear lead. The market research consultant noted that the outcome might easily be influenced by voter turnout or changes in campaign tempo.
“Neither side holds a statistically clear lead, and the small difference between them could easily be reversed by voter turnout patterns, ward-level shifts, or changes in campaign tempo,” Mizani Africa added.
As per the poll by Mizani Africa, Duncun Mbui of Chama Cha Kazi trails the top two candidates by a wide margin, polling at 5.7%. Another 7.3% of voters remain undecided, and their choices could ultimately determine the winner of the Mbeere North by-election.
“Duncun Mbui, polling at 5.7%, remains far behind the leading duo, leaving the real contest squarely between Leonard and Newton. Meanwhile, the 7.3% undecided voters form a decisive cohort whose final choices will determine the eventual victor,” Mizani Africa stated.
This comes as both the government, led by Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, and the opposition, led by DP party boss Rigathi Gachagua, have been in Mbeere North to drum up support for their candidates.
On Wednesday, the 19th, DP Kindiki toured several parts of Mbeere North, accompanied by a section of UDA leaders, including their by-election candidate, Leonard Wa Muthende. He rallied support for Muthende and promised development projects if he is elected.
On the other hand, opposition troops, led by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and former Attorney General Justin Muturi, have toured the region in the past few days to popularize their candidate, Newton Karish, who is running on the Democratic Party (DP) ticket.
The hotly contested Mbeere North by-election is scheduled to take place on 27th November.
